"Prospects for Obama's Democrats, Dangers of Romney's Republicans"
Hi everyone, Despite my level of political involvement outside of LUV, I normally shy from such discussions/invitations here to avoid suggestions of partisanship etc.. But in this particular case I do want to send out a general invite to readers of LUV-talk and friends because - from some experience - Linux users do seem to be a little more interested in politics and even US politics than average. The other matter is that the speaker, Dean, is a good friend of mine who is wise beyond his years and will give, I am sure, a very insightful and interesting presentation! Let me know (off-list) if you're able to attend. - - - - The 2012 US Presidential Election "Prospects for Obama's Democrats, Dangers of Romney's Republicans" Guest Speaker: Dean Edwards, Vice Chair of the National Executive Committee and the local coordinator for the Victorian Chapter of Democrats Abroad Plus: The acclaimed HBO Documentary "By The People: The Election of Barak Obama" (2009) Sunday, October 7th, 6.30pm $10/$5, proceeds to the Kooyong ALP FEA for the 2013 Federal Election Back meeting room, Glenferrie Hotel, 324 Burwood Road Hawthorn (near the corner of Glenferrie and Burwood, about 2 minutes from Glenferrie station) It's also cheap pizza night at the hotel! - - - All the best, -- Lev Lafayette, mobile: 0432 255 208 http://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc1855.txt
I refer you all to the following, which makes an important distinction between "poll" and "prediction". http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-elect...
On Tue, 2 Oct 2012, Allan Duncan <amd2345@fastmail.com.au> wrote:
I refer you all to the following, which makes an important distinction between "poll" and "prediction".
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-elec tion-is-no-contest.html
One important thing to note is that in Australia voting is required and most people cast valid votes. So a poll of who people want to win will be a good representation of what happens. In the US voting is voluntary so an important part of an election campaign is convincing people to vote. This is one of the reasons why the campaigns are more hostile and divisive. They want to convince people who care about extreme issues to vote, so they add support for extreme positions. In Australia it's more about convincing people who don't care enough to vote but who have to do so and will cast a valid vote for someone. So even crazy people like Tony Abbott will try and act nice to get some support from voters who don't care enough to investigate the issues. Now if the Democratic campaign people were to get complacent and let the people think it's a done deal then some people would probably not bother to vote - why bother voting if someone else is doing it? So they need to keep the pressure on to get the voters to show up on the day. Both parties need to convince the voters that it's going to be close so that they turn up. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2012 Also this year the election is for the President, the house of representatives, and 33/100 senators. So it's not just a matter of who becomes president, but of who gets control of the senate and the house and what majority they get - which is especially important for the senate. I think that the people involved all know what to expect in the presidential election, but most of them pretend that it's close to help with the senate and house. -- My Main Blog http://etbe.coker.com.au/ My Documents Blog http://doc.coker.com.au/
Quoting Lev Lafayette (lev@levlafayette.com):
But in this particular case I do want to send out a general invite to readers of LUV-talk and friends because - from some experience - Linux users do seem to be a little more interested in politics and even US politics than average.
Sorry to not be able to hear Dean Edwards's talk. However, for those interested in US electoral matters, I would like to put in a warm recommendation for Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, now hosted at the _New York Times_: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ Nate Silver is an analyst on political and statistical matters with a world-class track record. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight For the intersection between politics and economics, there's Paul Krugman's columns: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/ For perspective and humour, go straight to Andy Borowitz: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport
For a light-hearted look at Yank politics...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rumble_in_the_Air-Conditioned_Auditorium
I'm looking forward to seeing it. Carl T Bayswater On 04/10/12 09:43, Rick Moen wrote:
Quoting Lev Lafayette (lev@levlafayette.com):
But in this particular case I do want to send out a general invite to readers of LUV-talk and friends because - from some experience - Linux users do seem to be a little more interested in politics and even US politics than average. Sorry to not be able to hear Dean Edwards's talk. However, for those interested in US electoral matters, I would like to put in a warm recommendation for Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, now hosted at the _New York Times_:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Nate Silver is an analyst on political and statistical matters with a world-class track record. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
For the intersection between politics and economics, there's Paul Krugman's columns: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
For perspective and humour, go straight to Andy Borowitz: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport
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participants (5)
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Allan Duncan -
Carl Turney -
Lev Lafayette -
Rick Moen -
Russell Coker