On Fri, January 17, 2014 1:26 pm, Tim Josling wrote:
If you judge experts by a) ability to make predictions that turn out to be right b) ability to explain things that otherwise make no sense c) ability to design things that work d) ability to fix problems, the economics discipline as a whole is an epic fail.
Whilst this is an empirical question that would require a great deal of analysis a heuristic approach would initially suggest that there's a tendency to remember the failures of economic predictions rather than the successes, and that economic forecasting can become self-fulfilling through policy decisions. In contrast I don't see much argument against a core economic principles, for example, that if the supply of a good is restricted the price goes up, or if the price is increased the demand is reduced. -- Lev Lafayette, BA (Hons), GradCertTerAdEd (Murdoch), GradCertPM, MBA (Tech Mngmnt) (Chifley) mobile: 0432 255 208 RFC 1855 Netiquette Guidelines http://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc1855.txt