On Tue, 2 Oct 2012, Allan Duncan <amd2345@fastmail.com.au> wrote:
I refer you all to the following, which makes an important distinction between "poll" and "prediction".
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528840.200-the-us-presidential-elec tion-is-no-contest.html
One important thing to note is that in Australia voting is required and most people cast valid votes. So a poll of who people want to win will be a good representation of what happens. In the US voting is voluntary so an important part of an election campaign is convincing people to vote. This is one of the reasons why the campaigns are more hostile and divisive. They want to convince people who care about extreme issues to vote, so they add support for extreme positions. In Australia it's more about convincing people who don't care enough to vote but who have to do so and will cast a valid vote for someone. So even crazy people like Tony Abbott will try and act nice to get some support from voters who don't care enough to investigate the issues. Now if the Democratic campaign people were to get complacent and let the people think it's a done deal then some people would probably not bother to vote - why bother voting if someone else is doing it? So they need to keep the pressure on to get the voters to show up on the day. Both parties need to convince the voters that it's going to be close so that they turn up. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2012 Also this year the election is for the President, the house of representatives, and 33/100 senators. So it's not just a matter of who becomes president, but of who gets control of the senate and the house and what majority they get - which is especially important for the senate. I think that the people involved all know what to expect in the presidential election, but most of them pretend that it's close to help with the senate and house. -- My Main Blog http://etbe.coker.com.au/ My Documents Blog http://doc.coker.com.au/